The market should peak within three weeks

"If the duration of the current rally were to take the same portion of its ruling cycle that the 1929-1930 rally did, when would it end? The 1929-1930 rally lasted 155 days out of 968 in the cycle (1932 was a leap year), for a ratio of 0.1601. The 16.6-16.9-year span ends between February 19 and June 9, 2016. Applying the 0.1601 ratio to this period of 2541-2652 days from the March 6, 2009 low would give rally durations of 406.81-424.59 days, suggesting a peak in the current rally between April 16 and May 5. Using intraday turning dates projects exactly the same range. As Beautiful Pictures shows, time targeting usually works out to within 3 days. With April 14 already behind us and May 8 a Saturday, we can project a top on this basis between April 15 and may 7, 2010. April 16, by the way, marks the anniversary of the 1930 rally peak. These dates pertain only if the current rally matches its predecessor in percent-of-cycle terms, which is conjecture, but given all the other evidence it seems a reasonable expectation. By this scenario, the market should peak within three weeks and then fall for six years."

The Elliott Wave Theorist—April 16, 2010 –– p.6

Comments

  1. JerryDecember 22, 2019 at 12:09 PM

    Obviously, this is a failed scenario. Either that long fall is only now just barely begun or it is still yet to come.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. JerryNovember 13, 2022 at 1:15 PM

      As of the current EWT count (11/4/22) the Grand Supercycle wave III (circled) peaked in the Dow on 1/5/22. If true, that means the wave IV (circled) major correction is beginning, which will not yet be the final collapse of the industrial capitalist economy that began in the 18th century. One last major recovery, though some years hence, would be in the offing, but only after a likely worldwide depression worse than that in the 1930s. In that case, the game is still afoot for another couple-three generations perhaps.

      Delete

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